Seasonal forecasts are always a precarious venture and the affiliated climate models are often dubious in their skill level but I thought it might be interesting to have a look at the Euro’s monthly outlook through to March next year.
This is from the November run so it will be updated for the December forecast within a week, giving us yet another batch of data to utilize. It’s interesting to note that the model seems to have a respectable handle on the December pattern now that we have more solid information as to how it should progress. Whether this adds much to the accuracy level for the remainder of the outlook is arguable, though this predicted advancement seems feasible based on the components at play.
Note that these are interpretations of the predicted 500mb height anomalies as opposed to direct versions of surface temp or precip deviations.
The November forecast from the model performed impressively but it also had the shortest lead time so it would be less prone to substantial errors compared to the Jan/Feb/Mar output.
We’ll take another peek at the December forecast when it’s available and see if there’s cohesion or an erratic flip.