Following up on my preliminary winter outlook posted in late October, this will serve as both a revision of those initial analog selections as well as the promised breakdown between individual years and their respective outcomes for Dec-Jan-Feb.

Dropped from that precursory list are 1964-65, 1996-97 and 2011-12. This leaves 1970-71, 1984-85, 2007-08 and 2016-17 as the survivors. Newcomers to the fray in this update are 1955-56, 1973-74, 1995-96 and 2005-06.

This will be one of multiple tools I’ll be utilizing for a finalized winter forecast before the end of the month.

Let’s dive right in.


1955-56

DJF 500 mb / temps / precip

1956ana

SST anomalies

1956sst

ONI values

1956oni


1970-71

DJF 500 mb / temps / precip

1971ana

SST anomalies

1971sst

ONI values

1971oni


1973-74

DJF 500 mb / temps / precip

1974ana

SST anomalies

1974sst

ONI values

1974oni


1984-85

DJF 500 mb / temps / precip

1985ana

SST anomalies

1985sst

ONI values

1985oni


1995-96

DJF 500 mb / temps / precip

1996ana

SST anomalies

1996sst

ONI values

1996oni


2005-06

DJF 500 mb / temps / precip

2006ana

 

SST anomalies

2006sst

ONI values

2006oni


2007-08

DJF 500 mb / temps / precip

2008ana

SST anomalies

2008sst

ONI values

2008oni


2016-17

DJF 500 mb / temps / precip

2017ana

SST anomalies

2017sst

ONI values

2017oni


And finally the composite of those 8 years.

DJF 500 mb / temps / precip

analog1


This will be a factor in the revised winter outlook but how heavily it should be weighed is debatable given the numerous variables at play.

I’ll discuss the range of considerations in greater detail when the full forecast is posted.

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