Fall is feeling more like the summer we never had, so it seems appropriate to take a look back at my summer forecast to see how it held up. Interestingly enough for Eastern Ontario, this Thanksgiving long weekend will feature temperature in the same range as the Canada Day and August Long weekend (22-24c)
You may have seen bigmt’s recap of the summer verification here and here, so it comes as no surprise that it was cool and mostly wet for southern Ontario. My recap is based on the calendar summer period from June 21st to September 21st, rather than other forecast and summaries that run from meteorological summer (June, July and August).
First here is the recap of the 500 mb upper level atmospheric height, temperature and precipitation overview for the calendar period:
Here is a closer look at just the temperature verification:
In terms of temperatures, I noted early on that a cold May with snow meant a good chance of a cooler or normal summer weather:
In a previous blog post on the impact of snow in May and the summer weather, I noted that a cold May that features snow often follows a cooler or near normal summer. In fact only one year had a summer that was above normal after snow in May. In my opinion, this year looks to be no exception in terms of normal weather.
Rather than issuing a map I noted:
I won’t break down a region by region outlook this year. I think in general most of Canada is in for a pretty normal summer so it would be repetitive. I think both coasts, particularly the east coast, stand the best chance at warmer than normal weather.
This was really only the reality for a small portion of southern Manitoba, Northwest Ontario, parts of Quebec and New Brunswick. The rest of the country seen above normal temperatures, with the West Coast extremely above normal. I was also wrong that the East Coast would especially see the best chance of warmth; it was actually the west coast that seen the most extreme temperatures. Still Nova Scotia and PEI seen a pretty warm summer this year.
I also said the chance of the cooler weather wouldn’t just be confined to Ontario:
I think parts of Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario stand the best chance a slightly below average temperatures, however warmer days could still sneak in-between cool and unsettled periods.
This was wrong as the coldest anomalies pretty much stayed in Ontario. There was the odd warm day this summer in Southern Ontario but it didnt last long, and the number of 30c days were very limited, especially in Central and Eastern Ontario, with no over 30c day in July or August in Ottawa (not counting the humidity). Still, it wasnt the coolest summer we have ever seen.
Also I mentioned a possible return to El Nino later in the year:
The best chance that I am wrong will come in August when we potentially see a more solid outlook from El Nino possibly setting in. This could bring more heat for August but will it be a little too late?
This was not the case, as the ENSO stayed neutral through the summer and started to head into La Nina late summer into fall. We seen the pattern flip with heat in the east but only in later September and into fall. It wasn’t really enough to turn around the overall statistic results of the summer, but certainly help make it feel like an improvement like Travis’s recent post suggest.
In terms of precipitation, I noted:
I will say that the Quebec and Ontario region likely stands a good chance at more rain than average with the expected warmer temperatures along the east coast as the cold and warm air may clash directly over our region. Also if we continue with the trough, brief warmth and then trough pattern there could be a good chance of convective thunderstorms becoming localized in certain areas as these systems move through.
Ontario and parts of Quebec certainly seen the most rain this summer compared to the rest of Canada. The only other areas that seen a little more rain than average was extreme Nova Scotia and extreme Newfoundland, more towards late summer.
I noted that we could see a larger amount of thunderstorms in Ontario:
I think this could be a good season for active thunderstorms if the elements all come together.
And in fact, the thunderstorm we received last week tied Ottawa for the most amount of thunderstorm in a year, with 42 so far, as this articles with stats notes from Environment Canada.
The end result was I think my forecast came in somewhere around a 7 out of 10 for accuracy. In my opinion, the summer wasn’t the absolute worst, since I am not a fan of the humidity. Still a few less rainy days would have been nice, especially on the weekends.
Next up, later this week is the first early look at the winter forecast.