Extremely dry conditions have been the bane of the west this summer, sparking a brutal ongoing fire season and damaging moisture-starved crops across the region – a fact I plan to examine in an upcoming post.

This is emphasized by YYJ Victoria’s utter lack of measurable precip since the 18th of June when 2.4mm was recorded. July 2017 saw nothing more than trace amounts which puts it in rare territory as only July 2013 and 1958 are comparable. YVR Vancouver managed 1.8mm in July which is still obviously on the very dry side.

Yesterday (August 9th) marked 52 consecutive precip-free days and thus tied Victoria’s longest dry stretch on record. The preceding streak happened in 1986 between the 18th of July and the 8th of September, with August ’86 also putting up a grand total of 0mm.

However, change is in the offing this weekend and into next week as heights lower and cooler Pacific air is finally able to make headway inland. This should reduce temp departures to below-normal values and help to flush out some of the smoke which has stagnated under the current pattern.

Some moisture will also be on tap but nothing overly prolific seems likely for the SW and interior, at least initially. There should be additional opportunities moving forward as the strong upper ridge shifts away towards northeastern parts of the country.

06z GFS 2m temp anomalies, hour 24:

gfs_t2m_anom_pacnw_5

Hour 72:

gfs_t2m_anom_pacnw_13

Hour 120:

gfs_t2m_anom_pacnw_21

Total precip @ hour 120:

gfs_tprecip_britcol_21

06z GEFS 500mb height anomalies, days 6-10:

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_6

Days 11-15:

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_11

 

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