More of the same type of trough pattern we have had pretty much all summer will continue until around mid month. The means frequent weak systems moving across the Ontario region every couple days with temperatures near normal to slightly below normal. The risk of showers and possible thunderstorms will be with us almost everyday until around August 16th.
Here is the temperature outlook for next 14 days from Environment Canada:
The classic common theme we have been used to…By the way, as you can guess July came in cooler than normal for many locations across Ontario, with Ottawa never reaching a day above 30c (not counting the humidity):In fact Ottawa has only seen 6 days with a temperature over 30c. We usually see at least somewhere around 15 to 20 days. Southern Ontario isn’t much better with Toronto only seeing 8 days over 30c and their average is 20 days. Although these stats are a little deceiving as we have certainly come close many times with days in the 27 – 29c range and in the 35c above range with the humidity. We have certainly seen worse summers in terms of cool weather.
All this looks to change from around August 16th – through to August 28th (and maybe longer). The Euro Weeklies has been advertising the move of the western ridge further east towards our area for sometime. This should bring warmer days, and potential for drier weather, however bigmt warns that we shouldn’t assume the ridge will bring rain free days:
…warmer conditions through N ON & QC but also trend into an Omega Block setup in the interim as the H5 ridge is positioned between upper level troughs in the NW and also downstream in the east. Potential remains for additional storminess to languish under the blocking ridge in the NE if it remains anchored in this location, although that remains prone to the usual uncertainty at this range…
The question also remains if these warmer conditions will dominate in September through to the fall. My gut feeling is we do have a warmer fall but I am not ready to back that up just yet 😉