Stormy conditions across the western and central regions of the country produced another bout of severe weather in SK yesterday.

This is the relevant summary from EC.

More thunderstorms will impact southern parts of SK and MB today where watches and SWS indicating possible funnel clouds are now in place.

The latest convective outlook & discussion:

prairie_outlook_day_1

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE THE TALK OF THE TOWN TODAY WITH FURTHER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. BEGINNING WITH MANITOBA, PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION STILL WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE PROVINCE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SASKATCHEWAN LOW. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FIRE UNTIL AROUND 15Z OR SO BEFORE SETTLING DOWN WITH SOME CLEARING WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE PROVINCE. LOW WILL BE SITUATED NEAR PILOT MOUND THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARDS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARDS. MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOCUS WILL PRODUCE A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SASKATCHEWAN BORDER EASTWARDS TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY, CONFINED PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE TRANS-CANADA HIGHWAY. PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS, HOWEVER VEERING WIND PROFILES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE LOW WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO SHOULD THE STORMS BE ABLE TO COMPETE AGAINST THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TCH CORRIDOR AND NORTH, BUT DYNAMICS AND ENERGETIC ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS, SO NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THERE.

IN SASKATCHEWAN, THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE PROVINCE WILL SEE A SIMILAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AS MANITOBA AS A HANG-BACK TROUGH FROM THE LOW PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG IT. OTHERWISE, UPPER LOW COVERING MUCH OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THE FOCUS TODAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH ENVIRONMENTAL HELICITY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL BRING AN ELEVATED PROBABILITY OF FUNNEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA.

ALBERTA…THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS THROUGH EASTERN ALBERTA AND THE FOOTHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN AREAS FOR CONVECTION TODAY. MLCAPES ALONG THE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE TODAY HOWEVER 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS WEAK IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE SO PULSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS FEATURE. BULK SHEAR IS PERHAPS STRONGER ALONG THE FOOTHILLS HOWEVER THIS AREA IS GENERALLY DRIER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE MLCAPE VALUES ARE AS A RESULT WEAKER. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE PROVINCE WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ONCE AGAIN IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AND SHEAR APPROACHES 20 KTS. THIS AREA MAY SEE AN ORGANISED STORM LATER TODAY. TO TOP IT ALL OFF THE ATMOSPHERE IS GENERALLY STABILISING ALOFT SO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE WEAK TODAY AND WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SMOKE FROM BC WILDFIRES MAY IMPACT SOME REGIONS IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN ALBERTA TODAY.


Further downstream into ON & QC there will be turbulent conditions over the next while as well, where localized heavy precip totals could impact S/SW ON.

12z RDPS @ hour 12 / 24 / 36 / 48:

I_nw_EST_2017071112_012I_nw_EST_2017071112_024I_nw_EST_2017071112_036I_nw_EST_2017071112_048

Total precip @ hour 48:

rgem_tprecip_slp_quebec_17

If you’ve got a discerning eye you might have caught that bit of blue & yellow into portions of Labrador predicted by the mesoscale model in the above imagery, indicating mixed precip and potential snow – I kid you not.

Not often we’re into snowfall imagery in July but here’s the forecast map FYI:

rgem_snow_acc_quebec_17


A brief tidbit in regards to the developing ENSO state ahead of a more in-depth outlook expected from the IRI/CPC around mid-month, this is the SST profile from the new July run of the NMME multi-model product.

ENSO 3.4 plume:

nino34.rescaling.ENSMEAN

SST anomalies for Dec-Jan-Feb 2017-18:

sst anomaliesnmme

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