An upper pattern dictated by a trough / ridge / trough configuration looks to prevail through the bulk of the medium range, having remained quite stable for some time now.

This should lead to little in the way of substantial change on the grand scale as warmth continues to favour parts of the west with cooler & stormy/unsettled conditions downstream in a swath of the east. A more sustained SW flow into the Atlantic Provinces will likely still moderate this look as the trough digs into QC and the GL and multiple shortwaves slice through.

Month-to-date temp anomalies as of 18z on the 9th:

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anom

Guidance has been suggesting an abnormally cold look for far N and NE sections of the country as a deep upper vortex potentially becomes entrenched moving into the latter half of the mid-range towards the extended. This could be a consequential development and will be scrutinized over the next number of model cycles.

A fresh run of the Euro weeklies will also be available tonight to help in honing this outlook.

00z GEFS 500mb height anomalies, days 0-5:

gefs_z500a_5d_noram_21

Days 5-10, note the deep closed vortex in the NE:

gefs_z500a_5d_noram_41

Days 10-15:

gefs_z500a_5d_noram_61

00z NAEFS temp probabilities, days 8-14:

nafdsw

The precip forecast also sees little adjustment in the general sense under this regime.

Unfortunately this means drier-than-normal for fire-plagued parts of the west and additional rounds of showers and storms for the GL where they have been quite abundant so far this season.

00z GEFS precip anomalies, days 1-7:

gfs-ens_apcpna_namer_1

 

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