The reprieve from our rainy and cool pattern was brief last week, but Mother Nature is stubborn to let go of our same old pattern.  This means the cooler and wet conditions for Ontario look to continue the rest of the month into early August.  Ottawa is already over (at 98 mm) it’s average rainfall for the month of July and we are only 10 days into it.

Bigmt mentions the trough/ blocks unwillingness to fully break down, meaning the West continues to be warm, while towards Ontario and Quebec remains cooler with frequent low pressure systems moving through.  Parts of Southern Ontario, especially Eastern Ontario, have very little tolerance for any more rain; many fields and basement have flooded this past couple days with consent showers or thunderstorms that have moved through.

Take look at the amount of rain from normal since June 10th for Eastern Ontario; above 200%!precip15

While not everyday will be bad, you will have to take the goods days in between the rainy days, with sunny and warm days likely only lasting 2 days before more rain moves in.  This might take some skillful planning if you are going on vacation this month; don’t waste a sunny day 🙂

Here is Environment Canada’s outlook for the next 14 days; likely near normal for Ontario:nafdsw

This pattern is what was feared when I did up my Summer forecast.  The thought was this pattern might stick around for most of July.  No real clear picture for August just yet, but hopefully this pattern breaks down before the end of summer.

Cover photo from