Multiple types of severe weather are possible with a squall line along a cold front tomorrow morning and afternoon in southern Quebec.

A 500 mb cold pool of about -13 C will favour hail potential combined with over 2000 j/kg resulting from temperatures in the low 20s and dewpoints approaching 20 C. A bit of mid-level dryness and good low-level lapse rates should also result in some damaging wind potential.

Despite strong upper-level and modest mid-level winds, low-level winds will be even weaker than today, resulting in slow-moving storms with the potential for very heavy rain amounts once again.

The timing of this line is debatable, but it looks like the threat of severe storms should start after 8 am and subside by 3 pm.

I usually have a good feeling about cold-core/weak shear/moderate CAPE setups, which usually do yield severe weather as shown last week.HRRRNE_prec_radar_014

02Z HRRR simulated radar image for 12 pm Saturday.

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