Have you had just about enough of the cold, rainy pattern? Are you ready to throw the towel in on summer? Well fear not, summer weather looks to be on the horizon, however Mother Nature wants you to suffer 2 more days…
After a cool week, filled with cold core thunderstorms, funnel clouds, hail, tornado warnings and the odd peak of sun, we have about 2 more days of thunderstorm potential. However, the cold upper atmosphere trough is breaking down a little and the next round of storms coming will feature some humidity from the south making its way here today and tomorrow. Seaway weather notes that this will likely mean a high risk for storms on Canada Day, especially in Ottawa, and especially towards the late afternoon evening hours. If you are going out to celebrate, bring your rain coat, umbrella and be careful if a storm rolls in. Remember to stay away from those large trees for shelter!
Thankfully come Sunday and Monday we finally start to see this pattern relax and the jet stream becoming more zonal across Canada (note- Sunday late afternoon overnight could feature some showers as moisture passes across central Ontario, it should clear out come Monday). Bigmt notes this pattern change here and here. This means the heat that has been sitting around out west and towards the mid U.S will be filtering it’s way east. A high pressure looks to park itself over Ontario from about Monday until Thursday which should bring mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the normal to slightly above normal range 26 – 29c.
You can see this high pressure depicted here from the GFS model:
This return to a more normal summer pattern looks to stick around for a good portion of July. You can this from Environment Canada’s temperature outlook for the next 14 days:
However the bigger question remains; what happens later in the month? Do we return to this trough pattern; cool east, warm west? The latest Euro weeklies is starting to show that look with cooler temperatures coming back from July 20th towards the end of the month. It should again be noted that long range forecast like this are certainly not always reliable. However given the general pattern I expected for the summer, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the cooler weather return.
Just to note something that you probably already know; June will be coming in below normal for areas around central and eastern Ontario. The mean average (the average between the high temperature and the low over night temperatures) for Ottawa is coming in at 17.7c (normal is 18.5c) when the high temperature was 23.3c (normal is 24.1c). Toronto came in a lot closer to normal as they benefited from a few more southern humidity days. Their mean is coming in at 19.2c (normal is 18.6c) while their high temperature came in at 24.4c (normal is 24.2c). We still have one more day for official numbers to come in, but they should be close to this. This does come in line with what I expected for June, “…I noted that a cold May that features snow often follows a cooler or near normal summer. In fact only one year had a summer that was above normal after snow in May.”