The latest cool shot into the midsection of the continent is steadily playing itself out and should eventually give way to a more relaxed & widely milder pattern which has some potential for trending westward farther into July as weak troughing could idle in parts of the east.

A brief look at the recent temp profile highlighting the central cold and western warmth, along with some milder conditions for the east coast and sections of the north.

Last 7 days:

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_week_anom

Last 14 days:

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_2weeks_anom

A reasonable consensus through the later part of the medium range still exists between the GFS and European ensembles, with a burgeoning upper-level ridge and related warmth holding steady over the majority of the USA while lower heights orient offshore of BC and near Greenland, Labrador & N QC.

12z GEFS 500mb height anomalies, days 6-10:

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_6

12z EPS 500mb height anomalies, same timeframe:

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_namer_6

Some of the usual disparity develops into the extended as more of a +PNA pattern potentially develops, perhaps shifting the core of the above-normal temps towards the west and digging a slightly more pronounced trough into the east (albeit still with a signal for above-average heights in the means for some areas).

12z GEFS 500mb height anomalies, days 11-15:

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_11

12z GEFS PNA outlook, the ensemble mean is the green line with the spread also depicted:

gefs_pna_12

The aggregate 12z NAEFS probabilistic product suggests something of a similar outcome, days 8-14:

naffesd

The Euro’s handling of the situation has been a bit different over the last while so it will be interesting to see how the incoming run of the weeklies interprets things as it delves into July once more.

We’ll have a look at that tomorrow morning, along with a July forecast and a full June recap in the days to come.

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