The recent pattern featuring cascading cool air into central and eastern regions will abate over the course of the medium range as upper troughiness shifts NE to higher latitudes and a milder continental flow becomes established into early July. BC & portions of AB look to be the exceptions next week as a trough digs in from the NW but this is seemingly on the transient side moving into the extended range.

06z GFS ensembles 500mb height anomalies @ hour 120 / day 5:

gefs_z500a_noram_21

Broad-scale upper ridging could take hold over the USA farther out, bulging northward and bringing more typical summer warmth to many regions with it.

500mb height anomalies @ hour 240 / day 10:

gefs_z500a_noram_41

Question marks remain as to whether this mean ridge becomes anchored farther to the SW and heights lower again in parts of east down the road, possibly leading to more of a back-and-forth temp profile and renewed activity while heat shifts westward again to some degree.

We’ll continue to keep a measured eye on these developments and will update regularly to keep on top of any changes to the forecast.

500mb height anomalies @ hour 360 / day 15:

gefs_z500a_noram_61

Regardless this pattern change should confine most of the below-normal values near Greenland with muted effects on a limited section of Atlantic Canada.

00z NAEFS temp probabilities, days 8-14:

nffdxs


In the meantime storms and associated moisture will track through eastern parts of NL as well as the GL into QC & the Maritimes through the course of the short-range.

06z RGEM @ hour 12 / 24 / 36 / 48:

I_nw_EST_2017062806_012I_nw_EST_2017062806_024I_nw_EST_2017062806_036I_nw_EST_2017062806_048

Total precip @ hour 48:

rgem_tprecip_slp_labrador_17rgem_tprecip_slp_quebec_17


EDIT: EC has issued a summary for yesterday’s storms in NB, indicating that a possible tornado may have occurred.

 

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