The currently established regime will feature some constrained reinforcement through day 7 but could further deteriorate in the latter part of the medium range and beyond into July.

In the meantime a corridor of unsettled & stormy weather will focus bouts of heavier precip through the GL and into Atlantic Canada while predominantly drier-than-normal conditions mark the short-to-mid range for SW BC.

00z GFS ensembles total precip (inch) @ day 10:


WPC total precip, days 1-7:


Cool & disturbed conditions through ON/QC over the near-term should trend to the vigorous side later this week as a surge of warmer, more humid air develops and additional surface lows track through.

Another shot of cooler air directed primarily through western & central regions could then make it’s move, although it shouldn’t be as anomalous or widespread as this recent one. The core of this cool shot could be oriented more through SK and parts of MB with blunted effects to the south & east.

Farther out in the future BC & AB may face a cooldown while more substantive de-amplification potentially occurs downstream and a relatively broad-scale moderating / warming trend takes hold.

We’ll see if the updated weeklies concur tonight but the theme has been portrayed fairly consistently so far.

00z GFS ensembles 2m temp anomalies (F), days 7-14 / July 3rd – 10th: