Summer is officially here, however we kick it off with a one, maybe two weeks of cooler weather.  As previously mentioned the upper atmosphere has reset itself with a trough across the central and eastern part of the country.  This cold, upper atmosphere air is noted here in the models:ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_namer_6

Near the surface where we feel the temperature this type of pattern typically introduces colder air from the north keeping the warm humid air to the south.  Below is the 2 meter surface temperatures coming up for Monday:gfs_T2m_us_18

This pattern means our high temperatures, come Sunday will be near 18c!  Monday to next Sunday temperatures will be around 20c – 23c for most days as opposed to the normal temperatures for Ontario that should be closer to 24 – 26c.  It is expected this pattern could carry right through to July 4th.  Along with this pattern, the cold upper atmosphere and warm air near the ground from the sun will generate lots of convective clouds.  I would expect that many days during this time will feature more clouds then sun.  This could also spark showers in certain regions during those days.  Given the location of the trough over the region, I expect we will see many low pressure rain systems making their way through as well.

Although it’s a little of a disappointing start to the summer, the Euro Weeklies provide some hope of improvement for July.  Closer to normal conditions rather than the colder conditions could take hold from July 4th through to July 20th.  This trend still falls inline with my expectations for the summer; pretty much normal temperatures.  Personally, I would rather not turn on the very expensive Hydro sucking A/C and keep my windows open, however another couple degrees warmer during the day would be nice.

Remember this pattern doesn’t disclude our area from the odd day or two surge of heat and humidity ahead of low pressure system, similar to what occurred last weekend.

On another note; Bigmt and Seaway have mentioned the early Tropical Storm formation of TS Cindy which has already impacted the southern U.S with heavy rain and wind.  It is expected that some of that moisture will make it’s way to Ontario come later tonight into tomorrow.  SW Ontario will likely receive more rainfall than Eastern Ontario, but expect the whole region to be showery with some embedded thunderstorms.

cover photo from: www.dreamstime.com
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