The aforementioned system for Atlantic Canada is still set to unfold, tracking near or across NS and into NL before the week concludes.

06z RDPS @ hour 24 / 36 / 48:

I_nw_EST_2017060806_024I_nw_EST_2017060806_036I_nw_EST_2017060806_048

Total precipitation @ hour 48:

rgem_apcpn_secan_16


A major role reversal is underway between the west & east, as an upper low with correlated cooler/stormier conditions moves across the west and an H5 ridge with genuine summer heat expands into the east.

The cooldown in the west looks as if it will be temporary and the east may trend back towards seasonal values around day 10 or so but the interim looks markedly different from the prevailing pattern for the beginning of June and the bulk of the last few months.

00z GFS ensembles 2m temp anomalies, days 0 – 5:

gefs_t2ma_5d_noram_21

Days 5 – 10:

gefs_t2ma_5d_noram_41


A freshly-updated ENSO plume is in from the NMME model, muting the outlook for a possible upcoming El Nino event and bolstering some previously-posted information.

NMME ensemble mean:

nino34.rescaling.ENSMEAN

All members included:

nino34.rescaling.NMME

We’ll see what insight the next IRI forecast offers up later this month.

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