Here is my summer forecast.

Key Points

  • Nowhere in Canada will see a scorching summer however there will be some areas which will see above normal temps. It just won’t be record breaking
  • Above Normal Temps projected for Western Canada from BC east through Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Southern Manitoba. The core of the heat will be from Central BC into Central Alberta.
  • Below Normal Temps projected for majority of Eastern Canada with the core cold air in Labrador and parts of Newfoundland. Overall this is looking SLIGHTLY below normal for ON and QB.
  • Above Normal Rainfall projected for all of Eastern Canada as an active storm track combined with the summer humidity will create thunderstorms, and a higher chance of daily showers. Also, more cold fronts compared to normal will mean more rain in general in this part of the country. It will also include much of the US NE.
  • Western Canada should come in near normal for precip, with no dominating patterns expected.

 

TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN ONTARIO

  1. June will start off below normal, especially for the first 7-10 days. A moderating effect will occur with a few hot days thrown in by mid-late month. Im projecting most areas to finish 0.5C to 1.5C BELOW normal for this month. Expect sunny cooler days, and unstable warmer days. Threats of rain will be common through the entire month. An active storm track from BC through the south part of the country will keep the threat for precip a common occurrence for not only ON but most of the country. A common theme will be 2-3 sunny days followed by rain for 1-2 days.
  2. July is looking unstable from what I’m seeing for Southern and Eastern ON. The June pattern is looking stubborn and will be strengthening low pressure systems from the west with heavy rain for the area. Now the month shouldn’t be a washout, with many sunny days thrown in. But this won’t be a repeat of last July with wall to wall sunshine. Daytime heating will create localized storms, much more common then 2016 summer. Temperatures will average 1C to 2C BELOW NORM for most of the region. With an average high of 26-27C, this will still mean for a solid month for most. Just don’t expect as warm of a July as we’ve seen before. This one will be remembered for being cloudier than normal, and slightly cooler.
  3. August IMO may be the saving grace for the region. As we slowly trend towards El Nino and the stubborn west ridge breaks down, Southern Ontario will finally see some classic summer weather? Is it too late however? August is looking better than July at this point with less rain and temperatures returning to normal. Im projecting average highs near normal for the region, with a few locations possibly averaging 0.5C to 1C above normal. This will take the sting out of the May-July period. 

Overall, expect not a bad summer, but nothing people will remember. It will be average. We’ve seen worse but we’ve also had much better. The final stats will likely remain on the cool side when all the numbers come in, but within that story there will be some warm moments.

 

Projection for 30C Days……… (   ) = 2016 

Calgary: 6    (1)

Toronto: 12  (38)

 

Projection for 25C Days….. (   ) = 2016

Calgary: 36      (28)

Toronto: 60    (99)

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