Upper ridging responsible for recent warm and pleasant conditions in the west will migrate eastward through the course of this week, allowing troughing to once again take hold and mark a return to disturbed weather. The Prairie Provinces should continue to see a milder regime for the most part as the ridge shifts across the region.

Central and Eastern portions of the country will experience a stormy, perturbed situation with a closed upper low meandering about. This pattern looks to spark rounds of showers and potential thunderstorms for ON, QC and the Maritimes.

Locally at YOW we are now in 2nd place for wettest May (keeping a running theme going strong over the spring months) with 142.6mm recorded before today’s rain and this next soggy stretch. May 1986 is in the pole position at 164.1mm but that may be in jeopardy before we close out the month.

A visual look at the setup through the extended range from the latest GFS ensembles.

06z GEFS 500mb height anomalies, days 0-5:

gefs_z500a_5d_noram_21

Days 5-10:

gefs_z500a_5d_noram_41

Days 10-15:

gefs_z500a_5d_noram_61

The precip anomaly outlook through day 15:

gefs_tprecip_a_noram_61

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