We are on the heels of the upcoming summer, and although we haven’t seen extended periods of warmth just yet, summer will still make an appearance this year. The question is when and for how long?
In a previous blog post on the impact of snow in May and the summer weather, I noted that a cold May that features snow often follows a cooler or near normal summer. In fact only one year had a summer that was above normal after snow in May. In my opinion, this year looks to be no exception in terms of normal weather. The next couple weeks into mid June from the latest Euro weeklies look to be stuck with the trough pattern that will generally bring slightly below normal temperatures and an active, wetter pattern. After that, it’s hard to say with great certainty what will happen, but to cut to the chase for my thoughts on this summer; my prediction is we continue with a general cool, brief warmth, then cool pattern, with no particular pattern becoming predominant. This will likely lead to a near normal temperatures and rainfall summer for a good portion of Ontario. A much different summer than the hot and dry one of last year.
Let’s take a closer look at the long range models for temperatures. Remember there is a great deal of uncertainty with these long range models:
From the JAMSTEC:From the IMME:
From the NMME:
From the CFS:As you can see the IMME, NMME and CFS have a similar look with above normal temperatures along the east coast, and possibly the west. The NMME goes above that and extends the warmth into Quebec and Ontario. The JAMSTEC wants to be the most generous and extends the warmth for all Canada, with the warmest out west and cooler temperatures in Northern Quebec and Labrador. Those latest Euro weeklies already shows signs of similarities with the extend models in the long range; they want to bring warmer weather to the east coast. You can also see that The Weather Network’s forecast is also showing similarities with these models:
Environment Canada’s David Phillips also has as an article out with his opinion, they seem to favour a general warm summer, but not as warm as last year. In the article he points out that the cool weather from this spring has little to do with summer, but some of my stats on cool May’s help clarify this a little 😉 Regardless, history doesn’t always repeat itself with the weather but it’s a factor we should consider.
Here is Environment Canada’s 3 month outlook:
I won’t show you the precipitation model outlooks and go into detail on how much rain we might receive because summer activity can be so localized based on convection storms, they tend to be inaccurate. I will say that the Quebec and Ontario region likely stands a good chance at more rain than average with the expected warmer temperatures along the east coast as the cold and warm air may clash directly over our region. Also if we continue with the trough, brief warmth and then trough pattern there could be a good chance of convective thunderstorms becoming localized in certain areas as these systems move through. I think this could be a good season for active thunderstorms if the elements all come together. Good news for all the storm chasers out there, bad news for all the thunderstorm scared dogs and children 🙂
I won’t break down a region by region outlook this year. I think in general most of Canada is in for a pretty normal summer so it would be repetitive. I think both coasts, particularly the east coast, stand the best chance at warmer than normal weather. I think parts of Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario stand the best chance a slightly below average temperatures, however warmer days could still sneak in-between cool and unsettled periods.
The best chance that I am wrong will come in August when we potentially see a more solid outlook from El Nino possibly setting in. This could bring more heat for August but will it be a little too late?
If you have any specific questions on your area, I’ll do my best to respond to you. Hopefully we all get some warm sunny days before the snow wants to fly again 😉