Yet another moisture-laden spring system is impacting the east, soaking S ON through the course of the day as it plods towards Atlantic Canada tomorrow.
This is the latest summary from EC:
Weather summary for Ontario and the National Capital Region updated by Environment Canada at 8:21 p.m. EDT Thursday 25 May 2017. Discussion. A slow moving low pressure system over Ohio has produced significant rainfall amounts across the Golden Horseshoe. Rain began Wednesday evening and ended this afternoon. Rainfall amounts in millimetres up to 8 pm are listed below. Toronto Pearson Airport 40.6 Toronto Island 54.8 Toronto Downtown 52.3 Hamilton Airport 44.6 Hamilton Royal Botanical Gardens 48.8 Markham 29.0 Oshawa 33.5 Vineland 37.0 Kitchener 22.1 Brantford Airport 26.4 Delhi 32.6 Barrie Oro 26.1 Peterborough 28.1 Cobourg 30.7 Trenton 29.5 Point Petre 27.6 Please note that this summary may contain preliminary or unofficial information and does not constitute a complete or final report. End/OSPC
YHM Hamilton had recorded 109mm of rainfall for May 2017 prior to this storm vs normals of 78.7mm while YYZ Toronto was at 82.6mm / 74.3mm.
The latest total precip from the 12z HRDPS @ hour 48:
The longwave pattern shows little lasting change through the course of the medium range as a ridge / trough configuration holds sway over NA.
12z EPS 500mb height anomalies, days 6-10:
For the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, forecasters predict a 45 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 20 percent chance of a below-normal season.
Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
These numbers include Tropical Storm Arlene, a rare pre-season storm that formed over the eastern Atlantic in April.
“The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
This will bear scrutiny for interests on the east coast over the next few months.