Guidance remains a bit on the disjointed side among the latest chorus of 12z deterministic runs but general support still exists for a possible storm tracking into the east on a coastal trajectory which could affect parts of the Maritimes late this weekend into early next week.
This potential system may not be able to gain much in the way of latitude and could end up passing south of the region but it still warrants scrutiny over the next few days.
This is the low clustering from the 12z GFS ensembles @ hour 132:
The depth of the anticipated negative phase of the NAO has been most impressive, with a new record daily value for May:
I’ll be continuing my series on blocking episodes down the road which will include a highlight of the fairly well-known Greenland/NAO regime.
There’s still a good deal of uncertainty regarding the development of an El Nino in the tropical Pacific later this year as some of the models have backed off in their outlooks and the subsurface have looked on the hesitant side.
The ‘spring barrier’ is often a time where the seasonal models struggle with the evolution of the ENSO state so these sort of machinations aren’t all that unusual. We shall see.
Latest ENSO 3.4 plume from the NMME and it’s members:
SST anomalies as of May 8th: