In the sequel nobody wanted to see, additional rainfall onto hyper-saturated soil has regions in QC turning to military assistance to battle terrible flooding. Damage to property will have many homeowners asking tough questions about flood coverage from their insurance providers and/or the various levels of government, up to and including the feds.

Decades-high water levels on the GL are also sorely testing the resolve of ON residents along and adjacent to some of the shorelines, following another major spring soaker. Warnings have mercifully ended for this part of the Province but the cumulative effects of recent moisture should go on for a time yet.

This is the current satellite view of the expansive system responsible for a good deal of the recent misery:


NB and NS are also now under the influence of this complex as rainfall warnings and SWS blanket the region. A corridor through NB into the Gaspé Peninsula could be targeted for the heaviest amounts.

06z HRDPS total precip @ hour 48:


There should to be something of a reprieve for this area tomorrow but another dose of moisture is set to swing in from the S/SW by Monday before things begin to fully wind down.

Things are tremendously soggy in my local area with rain continuing today. Here’s a picture of a nearby creek which is running exceptionally high:


This was my rain gauge as of 10:30 AM; it was at roughly 48mm to start the day:


The daily record at YOW for the 6th of May is 19.6mm from 1952.

Thoughts and sympathies to all those in the east struggling to deal with this situation.

Guidance is offering some diffuse support for another possible disturbance in the east towards day 7 but as of now it looks somewhat less imposing than what’s underway at the moment.

We’ll see how the consensus shakes out in the days to come.

00z ECMWF @ hour 192:


00z CMC, same timeframe:


06z GFS, same timeframe: