Warm and mostly pleasant weather will prevail across a good chunk of AB, SK and into MB as ridging swells through the region over the near-term.

12z GFS 2m temps (C) @ hour 12 /36 / 60:

gfs_t2max_c_alberta_3gfs_t2max_c_saskatchewan_7gfs_t2max_c_saskatchewan_11


 

By contrast the east is caught in a vast upper-level gyre as downstream blocking obstructs progression of the current disturbance. For detailed info on the ON/QC situation see recent blog entries from JJ and Seawayweather.

Rounds of moisture will push into the Maritimes on the eastern side of the low and NB looks as if it will be the primary target for the heaviest amounts as waves of precip rotate in from the S/SW. Rainfall warnings and SWS are in place for the region now.

The sluggish momentum of this complex could mean prolonged wet conditions into early next week as colder air filters in on the backside farther west. Overall degradation should occur by Tuesday – Wednesday.

12z RDPS @ hour 12 / 24 / 36 / 48:

I_nw_EST_2017050512_012I_nw_EST_2017050512_024I_nw_EST_2017050512_036I_nw_EST_2017050512_048

Accumulated precip-type @ hour 48:

rgem_ptype_acc_quebec_17


 

Development on the pattern into the medium range and beyond is questionable, with some (perhaps muted) reinforcement of the current arrangement possible towards mid-month ahead of more possibly substantial changes thereafter.

12z GFS ensembles 2m temp anomalies, days 0-5:

gefs_t2ma_5d_noram_21

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