Guidance continues to support an imposing blocking pattern dominating the medium range, locking an upper-level trough through a portion of the east while a ridge builds through the Prairies and delivers a mild & dry regime.

12z EPS 500mb height anomalies, days 6-10:

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_namer_6

AO forecast from the 12z EPS:

eps_ao_12

NAO forecast:

eps_nao_12

Here’s my take on May 2017.

may2017temps

may2017precip

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