Before we dig in, on a local note YOW is currently in 4th place for the wettest recorded April – behind 2011, 2005 and 1991. The winter period in early 2017 has also badly taxed the city’s snow removal budget and already led to an expected deficit.
The City of Ottawa’s snow-clearing budget has already run up a $9.3 million deficit through the first three months of 2017 after what city staff call “extreme winter conditions” this year.
The report blamed the 172.9 centimetres of snow accumulation, 95.2 millimetres of rain and a total of 50 “winter events.”
“The first half of the 2017 winter season received significant snow accumulation and variable conditions which is second only to 2008 in terms of total snowfall in the last 30 years.”
The actual budget cost for winter clearing for 2017 won’t be calculated until the end of the year.
A complex, messy scenario is on the way for a large chunk of the east as freezing rain warnings are up for both parts of NL and an anticipated swath through N/NW ON into N QC.
Meanwhile a noteworthy swell of heat will encompass other parts of ON and QC ahead of stormy and volatile conditions into next week and thus early May.
The sequence through the short-range as depicted by the 06z HRDPS, hours 24 / 36 / 48:
Residents of Gander NL are presumably quite winter-weary at this point. To my knowledge the current snow depth reading at YQX is a record for this date, at least back to 1955.
The expected blast of late-month warmth in the southern regions of ON and QC remains very much on the agenda, which should set the stage for some convective activity over the next while.
This is the 2m temp forecast (F) from the HRDPS model for tomorrow afternoon:
The outlook for the extended range continues to look volatile and likely on the stormy side.
Support from the global models for a fairly deep area of low pressure to eject northwards early next week makes another round of active weather likely during that period.
That potential from the 06z GFS @ hour 138:
Same timeframe from the 00z CMC:
7-day total QPF from the WPC:
Farther out in the extended range the temperature profile also looks to be variable over the country as a whole.
06z GFS ensembles 2m temp anomalies, days 0-5:
Temp probabilities via the 00z NAEFS for days 8-14: