First off, let me welcome Travis to the Snowlovers blog team. Travis is an excellent addition in terms of weather knowledge. Living in the Lake Effect snowbelt region of Ontario, his skills in forecasting Lake Effect snowfall is one of the best I have seen. He will no doubt be a great resource looking into this hard to predict phenomenon this coming winter. Giving his close proximity to the GTA, he will also be a great resource keeping you up to date with that area or elsewhere year round. Welcome Travis!
This week is looking fairly quiet in Southern Ontario in terms of big active storms (a small system impacts Eastern Ontario tomorrow evening), which is a welcome relief for areas around the Ottawa River and into Southern Quebec who have battling flooding. Many areas have seen double the normal rainfall this month (including Ottawa) after a pretty heavy snowpack melt this season.
The big story will be warmer temperatures in Southern Ontario. A couple storms will be cutting west this week, like I discussed in my last post. These west cutting storms tend to bump up temperatures on east side of the Low pressure, with cold on the west side. This forecast below from the GFS this Thursday is a good example. I have pointed out the warmth being drawn into Southern Ontario, with cold further Northwest:
This means temperatures around the mid 20’s with some humidity for Southern Ontario Thursday into Friday, while areas further northwest battle snow, freezing rain and mixing. This graphic also shows the difference between the cold and warmth anomalies from normal (a classic spring battle example):
Looking ahead, a large system moving in Sunday to Monday in Southern Ontario may bring with it the chance for active weather as the cold air sets up further south. This will likely lead to a near normal and on and off below normal pattern I previously mentioned from May 1st through to the 10th. If this occurs I wouldn’t be surprised to see some wet snow or mixing across Central Ontario with storm systems that move in during the overnight hours. Here is a example of areas of snow from the GFS (circled in blue) for Tuesday night May 2nd:
Although the Euro weeklies I mentioned last post don’t really predict the exact daily pattern, but rather as a whole, so things do look to have colder periods though to mid May.