First off, a system making it’s way into Ontario today has been sparking some thunderstorms this evening with some unstable air in SW Ontario towards the GTA.  Some of them were near the severe mark earlier today, but they have dissipated now.  Here is the lightning strike area map from Environment Canada earlier today:lightning

These storms will be heading into Eastern Ontario overnight, but we are just looking at showers and drizzle into tomorrow as the system weakens and moves on.

So the warmth we have been waiting for is still out of reach according to the Euro weeklies.  It is predicting below normal pretty much right through May 15th.  We do seem to be stuck in the same pattern we’ve had for the last couple months with storms rolling through Ontario, often cutting west and pulling in colder air behind it for a couple days.  The difference being our normal temperatures are much higher so the cooler days are in the 10c – 13c range.  Our best chance for warmth will be the day or too before a storm moves in especially if they cut west across Ontario briefly drawing some warmth.  An example is this Sunday when we reach 16c but some clouds and rain move in the evening as a cold front crosses Eastern Ontario from the north.  We then head down to normal on Monday.   Normal is around 13c – 14c and climbing as we get into May.

However there is some chance that the weeklies are wrong as the GFS models disagrees somewhat.  As an example here is the outlook for warmth towards the end of April:gefs_t2ma_1d_noram_41

However come May 4th even the GFS model has the pattern flipped colder for the East:gefs_t2ma_1d_noram_61

This colder pattern even leads to some wet snow potentials across Ontario.  Take a look at the afternoon of May 4th from the GFS with some pockets of snow showers:May 4

I am starting to look at the long range models for the summer and I will release a forecast towards the end of May.  Right now the models are sort of near normal, with the exception of the JAMSTEC model which shows warmer than normal.  I expect a different summer than last year as our atmospheric pattern will be a neutral to possible El Nino, while last year it was heading into a neutral pattern from an El Nino.  Its really too early to say for sure, but I’m keeping an eye on the models for a particular pattern.