YOW is approaching 100mm of rainfall for April (vs normals of 63mm) with additional moisture on the agenda before the month is out.

Another disturbance is set to carve a path through the east later this week into the weekend, affecting ON & QC in the Thurs/Fri time period and parts of Atlantic Canada Sat/Sun.

This is the latest 06z GFS, hours 96 – 120 – 144:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_20gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_24

There’s some support for yet another storm to potentially make it’s move next week once this one has tracked out of the region. We’ll see how the models handle that over the next few days.

The 00z GFS ensembles have an evolving temperature profile through the extended range with the west coast generally mild and the lion’s share of the cooler air through the central and northern parts of the country. Some back-and-forth in the east with a notably warmer spell potentially taking hold in early May.

Days 5-10:

gefs_t2ma_5d_noram_41

Days 10-15:

gefs_t2ma_5d_noram_61

Finally, this is the early April ENSO outlook from the IRI – http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

By early April 2017, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, with above-average SSTs present in the eastern Pacific Ocean, and near-average SSTs present across the central and east-central part of the basin. Across the western and central Pacific, the pattern of cloudiness, rainfall, and winds remains consistent with La Nina-like conditions. The official forecast and most ENSO prediction models suggest an increasing chance of El Nino into the summer and fall of 2017.

enso443.gif

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