The west looks to remain seasonably cool and on the stormy side over the next while as  multiple disturbances roll in from the Pacific. They’ll lack the sheer intensity of last week’s low but things should be on the active side nonetheless.

The bulk of the central and eastern parts of the country are in for a generally above-average temp profile into the medium range with modest sporadic cooldowns in the mix. Some convective/messy conditions are in the cards but as with the west there isn’t much support for anything in the vein of last week’s soggy and better-organized systems for the moment. Parts of NW ON, QC and Atlantic Canada could very well see additional snow in this regime.

Total QPF for days 1-5 via the WPC:

p120i

2m temp anomalies from the 12z GEFS, days 1-5:

gefs_t2ma_5d_noram_21

Days 5-10:

gefs_t2ma_5d_noram_41

A look at the latest SST anomalies, updated today:

anomnight.4.10.2017

The haze surrounding the development of a potential El Nino episode later in the year should begin to clear as we pass the notorious ‘spring predictability barrier’ where the seasonal models often struggle mightily in their outlooks. Things tend to tighten up towards summertime, specifically in relation to the eventual intensity of the ENSO event.

As a guesstimate I’d say anything from La Nada (biased warm) to a moderate Nino could be on the agenda but virtually nothing is set in stone at this juncture.

 

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