By now you have most likely seen forecasts from the major weather agencies on the Spring forecast. You have also probably heard that Spring should be warmer this year, and for the most part I would say that is true. First we have to get through a pretty variable up and down pattern.
Below I will provide my forecast for the Spring, but first up, lets take a look at the forecasts from the major weather agencies:
As you can see EC and TWN are pretty similar forecasts with Accuweather being a bit different. I could post the outlook from the major long term models, (NMME, IMME, CFS JAMSTEC) but I will summarize that they all show a similar pattern; warmer than normal in Eastern Canada as well as parts of the Northwest. The difference being the JAMSTEC which is normal in Canada except the Prairies which is colder than normal. These long range models often don’t have a high degree of accuracy, although they did a decent job with part of the outlook this past winter (more on that later).
I will start out by saying I think in general it will be a normal Spring with some periods of slightly warmer than normal in many parts of Eastern Canada. However we first have to get through some more winter weather in the coming weeks. The models continue to show mixing type systems moving in through the first week of April. I can certainly see that the odd outbreak of winter weather could hang in to near the middle of April. However, we should start to see a change after Easter to a more consistent pattern of normal periods of warmth.
Here is my map and the break down by region:
After one of the snowiest winters in years, many parts of northern BC will see winter hanging on. However, snow weary Vancouver looks to finally be out of woods and should see a normal Spring in terms of temperatures and rainfall.
Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Most of the three Prairie provinces should see a normal Spring in terms of temperatures. However the southern portions of the provinces, from Calgary, Regina to Winnipeg could see slightly above normal rainfall from systems that flow from the Pacific south across Colorado and cut west like they have many times this winter.
Similar to the Prairies the northern part of Ontario should also see above normal rainfall from west cutting systems. Temperatures look to be near normal.
Southern Ontario (including the GTA)
After a pretty cool March, things should start to improve come the middle of April. I think any above normal temperatures should appear in the later half of Spring. For the most part rainfall should be normal, however over the next 2 weeks I do see some mixing type storms as a possibility.
Its been a tough March with snow and cold lingering and things should slowly improve. However I do see mixing storms as a possibility until around the 2nd week of April. Again similar to Southern ON, any warmer periods will occur later in the season. Moisture looks to be normal as low pressure system will continue to make their appearance. So I wouldn’t take off those winter tires for another 2 weeks Ottawa 😉
Southern Quebec looks very similar to Eastern Ontario with warmer periods later on and normal rainfall. Storms will be plentiful in the area and the next 2 weeks look to have more opportunities for some snowfall and mixing.
The Maritime’s will also see those slightly above normal temperatures eventually showing up. This area actually has a chance at pushing moisture to above normal levels as system strengthen over the Great Lakes as they make their way east. Like Ontario and Quebec, this area has been suffering from a cold start to Spring with snowstorm after snowstorm hitting the area.
I will have a review of my winter forecast this weekend. I will point out where my forecast was right or wrong and the actual conditions that occurred.