Nice to finally have a weekend that feels like Spring is near after the last couple frigid ones. Eastern Ontario enjoyed a nice sunny day today while areas North and West of the GTA had some light snow today from a weak clipper. A couple of days ago on the models the clipper looked bigger and was effecting all of Southern and eastern Ontario, so for once we got a break. Especially after Ottawa recorded 22 cm of snow from that last storm and areas like Montreal received 40 -50 cms. The northwest shift meant we got more than what was originally forecasted while areas further South like NYC got less than what they expected.
So when can we expect to see Spring? Well for once I am seeing some hints of warmth on the models (they have been predicting below normal right to the end of the month for weeks now). However first we have to get through another week of cold. Tuesday and Wednesday look below normal as another Arctic high pressure takes over. But it doesn’t look to last long as come Thursday, Friday we take on a more flat zonal jet stream and with some Pacific air, rather than Arctic air.
A storm coming in next Friday to Saturday looks to be a close call as to who gets snow or rain. The models (especially the Euro and GEM) have been back and forth on southern Ontario getting a good blast of snow. I wont post details yet since its far out.
After that, March 27th – 31st is when I see some major improvements to warmer Spring temperatures (+5 to +7C). Here is the long range GFS model interpretation:
I cannot say with certainty that this will carry over into April but some of the long range models are looking good, with at least normal temperatures for April.
I will have a Spring forecast out in the next of couple days, as well as my winter recap and verification of my forecast ready by next weekend.