Sorry for the late blog post on this up coming storm. Models have been really over the place with this storm so it’s been hard to forecast.
First it was Manitoba and Saskatchewan with a big blizzard last week, then Newfoundland got a taste on the weekend that brought 160 km/h hurricane CAT 2 gusts and now it’s the US Eastern Seaboard and the New Brunswick’s turn for a powerful Nor’easter.
Washington DC, New York City, Boston and to the north of these area will get blasted with 2, local 3 feet, of snow from this monster. The precipitation area from this storm will even spread into Ontario and Quebec as the storm progress. What making this one complicated to forecast is the first separate low pressure moves into tonight from the west and then merging with another coastal storm that redevelops into a powerful storm.
With lots of cold air in place, the ratios from this storm should be high, meaning it wont take much moisture to produce larger snowfalls. Where the models have been consistent with big snow has been along the coast and in the Golden horseshoe area of Southern Ontario. Unless were it’s mean hard to predict, with almost every model with different totals. This is because the initial Low hits the SW Ontario area first and the area benefits from cold easterly winds over Lake Ontario which will enhance the snow fall amount.
Here is my map for the storm:
Areas from Hamilton down to Niagara will get the most, with amounts around 20 cms, possibly near 30 cm in some areas. Around the GTA, I expect maybe 10 – 15 cm, locally 20+ cms towards Mississauga, Oakville and Burlington. Other areas of Ontario are more in the 5 cm, maybe 10 cm range in spots. Ottawa can expect 10 maybe 15 cms and Montreal near 20 cm as they both benefit from being a little closer to the Nor’Easter later tomorrow and tomorrow night.
Stay safe…BTW, this likely wont be our last winter blast this month…it continues to look below normal for a good chunk of March.