Cold temperatures in Ontario have taken hold as the models had predicted, with the Ottawa region falling to near -24c tonight and a cold windchill. However there is some good news if you are looking for spring; today and tonight looks to be the coldest of the month and the cold weather on the long range models does not appear to have staying power.  As you probably know, March is time for a battle between warm and cold, as the sun becomes stronger and days longer, with cold sometimes refusing to leave.  The long range models have had a below normal temperature look for most of the month, however there does look to be warm periods in between as fast moving storms bring warm in, with cold coming back in after the storm.

The next storm coming Tuesday is an example.  As the SE ridge continues to flex its muscles with a firm High pressure system off the US eastern seaboard sending the next Colorado low very far west over Manitoba, allowing lots of warmth and rain to invade Ontario. Here is that example from the GFS model:tuesday

This storm looks to start as freezing rain in the Ottawa Valley towards Montreal, before the rain and warmth takes over.  Behind the storm come Thursday night, it looks cold again, however not as cold as what we experienced since this past Thursday.  Here is the air temps after that storm:thursday

This cold pattern behind storms, and then storms bringing warmth looks to continue through most of the month, very much like what we have experienced most of the winter.  Therefore any one temperature profile probably wont be with us for more than 2 or 3 days.

This doesn’t mean a snowstorm isn’t impossible.  The models have multiple upcoming opportunities;

March 10 – weak Alberta clipper with some snow through Southern ON

March 11-12 – Colorado Low with mixing snow to rain scenario through Central and Eastern ON, more rain in Southern ON.

March 12-13 – Another Colorado Low behind it with more rain than snow.

March 16-17 – Another Colorado Low, more rain than snow.

We will see if any of these storms occur and what they bring.  In the meantime know that winter will soon start to be breaking down and loosing ground.