Warm air is marching towards southern Ontario today, a little bit early then some of the model runs that had it starting Sunday in Eastern Ontario.  The models are still at war for how warm it gets.  It’s actually split in half from the big models; half say we are in the 8-10c range today into tomorrow, the other half say the 4-7c range.  My thoughts are Ottawa lands somewhere near 5-6c for both today and tomorrow ( I am at 4c as of 12 noon Saturday).  However locations down in Southern Ontario have a chance of the low to mid teens (11-15c) both days.

It will trend a bit cooler come Monday as colder air from the northwest over Quebec moderates the warmth, however almost all of Southern, Central and Eastern Ontario stay above 0c all next week.

We could have a weaker storm pass to the north mid week that will bring rain for most of Ontario and parts of Quebec early on Wednesday:gfs-wed

It is possible it starts as some wet snow or light freezing rain in the Ottawa valley.

The models have also been consistent with a fairly large storm in the east next weekend Feb 24 -26th.  What they haven’t been consistent with is the actual path the storm takes.  It has shown up far west across Ontario and then closer to Southern Ontario.  Here is the look from this morning’s GFS model:gfs-25th

I think it will mostly be a rain event across southern Ontario but possible for a wet snow to freezing rain to rain event for Eastern Ontario and Southern Quebec.

This warmer pattern will give Eastern Ontario a break from all the snow we have been receiving.  Ottawa peaked this week with 77cm on the ground here. That is the most snow we’ve had in years, and with our season totals getting above normal (235 cm is the norm, we are at 246 cms) we are on our way to the snowiest winter since the big winter of 2007-2008.

Here is a look of the 77 cm around my place:20170218_101115


Time to dig out my 911 address sign (which stands around 4 feet):20170216_071149

Look ahead

After the 26th of February into early March we look to trend back cooler towards normal.  I wouldn’t say bone chilling cold, but certainly colder with high’s closer to the 0c to -5c range.  I see opportunity for snow storms during the early March period, but given the time of year and the pattern we have had this year, the path of the storms will probably be on the line with who gets snow or rain across Ontario.

Hard to say for sure what will happen mid to late March.  Here is Accuweather’s thoughts on the potential for a wet and unsettled March to April in our area:post-23784-1487165528

That would mean more clouds and storms than sun and cold.  In my opinion we have peaked for our greatest amount of snow and coldest temperatures, but it doesnt mean we can put away the shovels.