Another round of snow is making its was through mostly Eastern Ontario, into Quebec as a low from northern Ontario is moving in. This system is pretty slow moving so it should drop around 10 cm in total on and off for Ottawa come Thursday am. Its possible that locations in Ottawa and east towards Montreal reach 15 cm as the system strengthens on its way to the Maritimes.
Once again the storm blows up over New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. They could again be measuring snow by the foot in the area. Speaking of strong storms in that area, here is a satellite image of the last storm that just went through and dropped 80 – 100 cms in many parts:
This is basically a winter hurricane with the center pressure of the storm very low and strong winds an tons of moisture.
Speaking of moisture, below is chart that my weather friend Mike (bigmt) put together that shows many major cities in Canada are already at their above average snowfall (in bold – the number on the left is actual cms from Dec-Jan-Feb, compared to the normal cms on the right):
YYJ Victoria, BC – 49.3cm / 30.9cm
YVR Vancouver, BC – 62.8cm / 32.2cm
YYC Calgary, AB – 65cm / 44.8cm
YHM Hamilton, ON – 61.9cm / 109.4cm
YYZ Toronto, ON – 72.6cm / 78.4cm
YOW Ottawa, ON – 191.4cm / 149.7cm
YUL Montreal, QC – 150.3cm / 139.6cm
YSJ Saint John, NB – 211cm / 162.6cm
YYG Charlottetown, PEI – 209.2cm / 197.2cm
YHZ Halifax, NS -243.7cm / 149.3cm
YQY Sydney, NS – 258.1.4cm / 198.1cm
YYT St. John’s, NL – 249.6cm / 223.1cm
Poor Toronto and southwestern Ontario, there snowfall rates are still below normal and almost the same as Vancouver, but its actually more of a snow drought then moisture drought, as the area has seen above normal rainfall. All the result of the La Nina type of winter we have had to date. The below map helps explain whats happening:
So in terms of warmth, as I noted in a previous blog post we are heading into an above average temperature period from Feb. 19th to the 24th. Some models like the GEM that Environment Canada mostly uses has Ottawa to Windsor in the 8c – 12c range come Sunday. I think that temperature is a bit too high especially for Ottawa with a deep snow pack, maybe 5c – 6c might be more appropriate, we shall see. Also next week has a couple storms coming through that will likely bring rain, but there is a possibility Ottawa and Eastern Ontario gets into more mixing to freezing rain to rain scenarios. Here is the 14 day temperature from normal probability:
However, don’t put away the shovel and winter coat yet. The late February to early March time frame looks to be near to below normal with likely more snow opportunities.