A couple storms on the models next week.  First up is a smaller clipper like storm on Sunday.  Here is the look from the GFS model:sunday-storm

I’m thinking this is mostly a 5 cm and under event for most of Ontario.  Possibly a bit more in Eastern Ontario, near the Quebec border.  Quebec and points east look like a bit more snow 10+cms.

Another system is moving in for February 8th.  This storm is a little all over the place on the models, with the jet stream directly over Southern Ontario. However no surprise this one wants to cut the lakes once again and bring potential rain in southern Ontario and mixing and freezing rain in Eastern Ontario:feb-8

Hard to say on amounts with this one yet.  But it certainly holds potential for larger amounts of snow for somebody in Ontario.  Some models has another system right behind that on for February 9th.

Afterwards it looks to get colder towards the Feb.11 weekend.  The pattern after that is getting a little hard to forecast.  Some models have a warm up for the remainder of the month, however there is hints that some strong Arctic air invades our region.  There is currently a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event going on in the upper atmosphere over the Arctic.  This often leads to cold Arctic air dropping further south than normal later on, also known as the Polar Vortex.  The question is were does this cold air go, Eastern Canada, Western Canada or the other side the pole to Russia and Europe.  Right now I am leaning to Eastern Canada given the placement of the upper atmosphere conditions at that time.  It will be one to watch.  You can read more about SSW’s here and here.

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