The storm for Monday afternoon into Tuesday is looking like quite the complex system.  The question is still where exactly the heavier snow will set up.  The models have been all over the place with heavy snow from Toronto, Belleville area, Ottawa or Montreal. The storms has plenty of strength and moisture, but its placement along the US east will determine where the heavier snow falls in Ontario and Quebec.  We need more time for the storm to build on the west coast as it moves east over the Rockies and we get more data from weather satellites and weather balloon data.

Here is an example of few of the models this morning.

GFS:06z-gfs

GEM:gem-12z

UKMET:ukmet

What’s also really interesting about this storm is although there is not a lot of cold air in place, the storm will actually make it’s own cold air from convection and thermodynamics.  Since the storm is strong, as it builds convection, the clouds in the upper atmosphere will actually begin to cool the air as the storm gets going.  Meaning that the storm may begin as rain in some areas and change to wet snow as the moisture rate increases.  In other areas the strengthen and high moisture in the storm will likely change to sleet.  I think areas around Ottawa and Montreal may suffer from periods of sleet at the height of the storm.

The below is my initial thoughts on the storm potential.  It’s certainly not a certain forecast, so I will update this map on Sunday night once we see a few more models runs.storm-post-version

 

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