The storm for tomorrow looks stay a little further south and east than previous models runs. However there really isn’t enough cold air in the upper levels of the atmosphere to support snow except areas in Eastern Ontario into Southern Quebec.
Areas north and east of the GTA could be in for periods of significant ice from around noon tomorrow until near 8 pm; areas around Peterborough could receive some pretty good ice accumulations. Areas of Southern Ontario will have some freezing rain overnight tonight before changing to rain late tomorrow morning.
I suspect Ottawa my stay as mostly snow starting late tomorrow afternoon with perhaps some ice pellets or freezing rain, but the accumulations will stay low, perhaps 2 -4 cms, as the storm stays mostly south of the area.
Here is the GFS model for tomorrow evening.
Thaw is still on track behind the storm until at least the 23-24th, perhaps into the 27th. Again temperatures around 2 – 3c around Ottawa and 4 – 5c around the GTA for many of those days.
There is storm on the models that I mentioned previously around January 24th that has my attention as a possible major snow/ice storm for somebody from eastern Ontario to the Maritimes. Here is the look at that storm on the models today (and another pretty strong storm behind it):