To update you on the storms I posted in my last blog, the Friday January 13th storm came a little quicker on Thursday right behind the 10th – 11th storm.  It ended up as mostly rain and weaker than some of the earlier model runs with very little back-end snow.  The Saturday storm will stay well south of S. Ontario down towards Virginia and Maryland and be mostly rain with mixing.  This was because the cold High pressure we are currently experiencing will be stronger and slip further south.

For next week, the January thaw is on its way, and it looks quite strong.  From January 17 right towards 26 – 27th will be substantially warm across most of Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes.  I can see many locations will be 10 – maybe 20 degrees above normal on many of those dates.  This means daily temperatures around from 3 – 4c to maybe near 10 – 11c further south.

To give you an idea, look at the areas painted dark red below below, meaning the degrees above normal:thaw

However this period wont be without storms.  We kick off the thaw with another west cutting storm January 17 – 18th.  Central and Eastern Ontario into Southern Quebec should watch for this to start as an ice storm before temperatures climb and change to rain.  Further south towards the GTA this will be all rain:18z

There is another storm on the models around Jan.22 – 23 but should be all rain with the thaw in full swing at that point.  Other storms around the 24 – 26th show potential for snow or ice but the rain threat will also be a feature.

After the 28 – 30th of January, a major change in the upper atmosphere looks to be taking shape.  We lose the La Nina feature and things look to even out more to neutral conditions.  This should mean the return of Arctic air for the Prairie’s into Ontario towards the east coast, while the west coast returns to more normal conditions after all the cold and snow they have received.  This means that February looks cold with more storm opportunities for Ontario and the East Coast, as storms should stop cutting west across the Great Lakes.  Things could go further the other way where storms swing below Ontario and ride the US east coast towards the Maritimes as our region could suffer from suppression; meaning that cold Arctic air takes hold in the upper atmosphere forcing storms further south and east.  More to come on the pattern change later in the month.

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