Proper winter has set in across Central and Eastern Ontario across to Southern Quebec. With cold temperatures and deep snow cover, it feels like we are in the bleak mid winter period. Further in Southern Ontario it is cold, however there is little snow cover. In fact there is a huge difference between Ottawa that has 55 cm on the ground while Toronto has nothing to only a trace of snow.
For the snowlovers in the south unfortunately these conditions look to continue for the next couple weeks since we have the same atmosphere conditions in place; La Nina with a South East Ridge. There are a number of storms on the models but many of them want to continue to cut west across the lakes which could mean more rain for southern Ontario and more mixing and freezing rain across Eastern Ontario.
Here are a couple of storms showing up:
January 7 & 8th – this storm wont effect Ontario or Quebec, but I had to mention it as its a fairly large intense snowstorm across the coast North Carolina,Virginia, New Jersey, NY City, up to Rhode Island, Mass, and into Nova Scotia and parts of New Brunswick and Newfoundland. This storm may drop more snow in a storm than the GTA has received in a storm to date.
Monday January 9th – a weak clipper type system will bring flurries to light snow across Southern and Eastern Ontario.
Tuesday January 10th – A large storm will cut west across the Lakes in similar fashion to this week’s past storm. This will bring a snow to rain, back to maybe snow across Southern Ontario, where Eastern Ontario and Ottawa will have a snow to freezing rain, maybe to brief rain then back to a little snow into Wednesday:
Friday Jan.13th – Same story, different storm, cuts west, although this storm looks to maybe have more rain than snow. Ottawa and Eastern Ontario are in for another ice/mixing to rain storm:
Saturday Januray 14th – Another storm that’s back and forth on the models as to where the rain or snow sets up. Past models runs have been snow for southern Ontario, but some recent change have been more rain.
By the way, if you are wondering why Ottawa seems to keep cashing in on snow and freezing rain with these systems it’s mostly because of our geographic region and CAD (cold air damming) with a colder high pressure system in front of the storm. You can read more about CAD here
Things calm down after the 14th and we look to get into a typical January thaw from January 17 – 23rd as the cold air across western Canada finally retreats up towards Alaska and mild Pacific air takes hold. Temperatures during these period could be 5 to degrees above normal. These means that many locations could get periods of 10c days. I can also see a rain storm or two during this period. Here is the 15 day temperature outlook which is starting to pick up on the warmth:
Things look to return to a strong winter period into late January early February.