Well winter just got started in most locations the last couple weeks, but mother nature wants to warm things back up.

Here he comes:

heat-1

(if you aren’t familiar with this guy, here is his video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbfgVEk-mxQ )

But luckily his timing is slightly off and the rain storm doesn’t start until overnight Christmas day into Boxing Day.  A large GLC (Great Lakes Cutter) storm is getting ready to form, hot off the heals of the pattern change starting tomorrow.  We lose the connection to Arctic air as it retreats back north and the flow becomes more moderated from the Pacific across Canada . This means temperature will be above normal (0c to +4c), to near normal for likely the next 15 days.

Here is the long range temperature profile:next-15-days

Here is the look from the GFS model of the monster cutter storm for Boxing day morning:boxing-day

Areas around the Ottawa Valley will have to watch for this starting as freezing rain, with an extended period possible.  Further south towards the Lakes and the GTA, it will be all rain.  Temperatures could peak around 7 – 11c across the region with some potential strong winds.  It’s possible we end the storm with some backend snow into Dec.27th and Lake Effect snow (LES) as temperatures drop behind the storm, but outside the LES regions, I don’t expect much. (BTW, it should be quite the storm near the Manitoba/Ontario border, a potential blizzard!)

Many locations across Southern Western Ontario will be in danger of losing their snowcover from this storm, along with a couple warm days before Christmas.  The areas across Central and Eastern Ontario (including the Lake effect regions around Georgian Bay) should maintain snow, but I suspect they will lose at least half their totals, ending with between 10 – 15 cm left.  Too bad for the ski industry who probably just got things started.

Right behind this storm is another one from Dec. 29th – 30th, possibly into the 31st, that may take a similar path.   The models are still moving this one back and forth from the US coast to west cutting the Great Lakes again.  If it does cut west, it will likely put a nail in the coffin for snow across all of southern Ontario, including Eastern Ontario.

Remember this type of pattern, like I have discussed before, supports these type of storms.  I don’t expect we get back to a really cold pattern like we had in mid-December until mid to late January.

Also remember just because we are in this pattern doesn’t mean there can’t be the odd cold day, or a storm that brings snow.  We’ve seen it happen in this type of pattern back at the end of November.  So it’s not impossible, it’s just that things will be touch and go where the snow falls and likely come down to knowing right before the storm as the models have a tough time placing the snow with this type of pattern.

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