“When what to my wondering eyes should appear…but snow on the ground for almost all of Ontario…”
This weekends storm has fortunately set the stage for almost of Ontario to have a very good chance at a white Christmas. The models kept showing a warm up and rain with the storm but luckily the warm up was short and didn’t have too much rain for parts of southern Ontario. Many locations could have a white Christmas that we haven’t seen one in years. I noted in my November Winter forecast that the analog years all had snow in the GTA at Christmas.
Here is my outlook:
Many spots in Central and Eastern Ontario have over 30 cms on the ground, while the Lake Effect regions around Georgian Bay have close to 90 cm. Even the GTA has a good amount of snow on the ground. However, we have a pattern shift coming up where the arctic air that has take over the region again today will retreat back north towards Greenland come Wednesday and a zonal Pacific flow takes over most of Canada. This will raise temperature above normal on most days from Wednesday onwards. There is small storm coming though Thursday that should remain all snow, but with light accumulations and near normal temps. This should help replenish areas that may have some melting on Wednesday, Friday and Saturday. Some regions near Lake Erie in southern Ontario don’t have much snow on the ground so temperatures around 3 – 4c on these days could have some decent melting.
There is also another storm moving up from the gulf on late Christmas day into Boxing Day, possibly tracking west across the Lakes bringing some rain and snow mix. This storm could erase some snow on the ground, but it will be later on Christmas Day, so technically still a white Christmas. Since the last couple storms show tracking west on the models have moved further south and worked out for snow, this one could do the same, however we did have more Arctic air to work with in those scenarios, but still not impossible to have some snow with this system.
I will have one more quick update on Thursday for a final word. With this storm moving in Christmas day, some location could even have a perfect white Christmas, meaning on snow falling on the day.