A couple models show a week system moving through Sunday Dec.5 into Monday morning with a possible couple cms.  At this point it looks weak and possibly scattered, so I would say a general trace to maybe 2-3 cm for Eastern Ontario and possibly 4-8 am for other parts of southern Ontario.  I’ll keep watching it and if gets any stronger I’ll provide an update.

The GLC storm for Dec.7 – 8th has been looking weaker on some of the recent models runs.  This is probably a better solution if regions in Eastern Ontario want to get any snow out of it.  I am not ready to provide snow totals or full predictions yet as it is too uncertain.  At this point I would say it will be a snow to wet snow/rain event, likely not huge accumulations.  The weaker solution would also mean less snow for the Lake Effect Snowbelt regions.

Beyond that it gets colder as promised, along with a few snow opportunities.  We will have to watch for GLC still during this time as a trough out west and a strong Southeast ridge off the coast of the southern US seaboard are in play and this tends to bring storms  west across the lakes.  I can’t give specific details yet as it would be a guess, but here are some of the opportunities to date:

  • Dec.11th – weaker Northern ON/Great Lakes storm
  • Dec. 14-15th – stronger, maybe coastal storm
  • Dec.18th – weaker Northern ON/Great Lakes storm

Here is look at the accumulated snow (in inches) come Dec.18th:gfs_asnow_neus_41

Beyond that, recent data is showing a pattern change from Dec.18 through to Dec.27-28th to warmer pacific conditions.  Watch for more info on this during my white Christmas post tomorrow.