Another storm is making it’s way Southern Ontario tonight into tomorrow.  However, instead of strengthening like the last one, this one is weakening.  I wont bother doing up a map for this one, as I think most of Southern and Eastern Ontario ends up with 2 – 3 cms.  The exception might be south of Georgian Bay (Alliston, Collingwood) and from Sault Ste. Marie to Sudbury, this area could pick up 5+cms. The GTA and points south and west in southern Ontario get mostly rain.  Ottawa likely sees 2 – 3cm of light snow tomorrow AM through the day, Montreal even less.

The bigger story is some of the storms coming in behind in the next 2 weeks.  If you are a snowlover, you might get disappointed, if you are already tired of winter, this might make you happy.

First let’s look at the pattern:


The above map from Accuweather shows how the jet stream is flowing over Southern Ontario bringing more storms, but with a blocking high pressure over Greenland, and a high pressure out in Pacific, our area will have little cold air to work with and this type of pattern tends to lead to storms cutting through the Great Lakes with my most hated type of storms, Cutters (GLC).  These storms will bring rain, wind and warmer temperatures, while locations in Northwestern Ontario get the snow.

To support this pattern here is a look at the temperature anomalies from the NAEFS model to near mid month:naefs

Most of the time these storms bring little snow to our area, the next couple are no exception

The Storms:

Another weak system crossing Southern Ontario early Saturday AM brings mostly rain showers, maybe light snow in Central Ontario:storm-1

The next one on Tuesday/Wednesday is very similar to the storm that came through last Sunday – Monday:storm-2

but rather than get blocked and strengthen, another Low from Texas follows it and cuts the lakes in classic GLC fashion:storm-3

Another one follows up Thursday to Friday, this time closer to the East Coast but still with lots of rain :storm-4

These storms are common in the fall but usually occur earlier and I always hope to see them go away come December.  There could certainly be snow mixing in some areas with these storms but the majority of it will fall as rain.

Behind these storms from the week of Dec 5 onwards looks to get a little colder and trending towards a more winter pattern I have talked about near mid month.  The longer range towards Christmas still looks a little iffy; we could a trend back to this blocking with cutter warmer pattern.  Hopefully not if you are looking for a white Christmas like me.

So if you have snow on the ground now, you should enjoy it, as it might not reappear until the Dec.5 – 15th time period.  Happy news for the non-winter lovers.