longThe storm is still raging in parts of Eastern Ontario around Ottawa.  It’s really quite incredible that we managed to get this type of storm during such a warm November. Here is a satellite look form this evening:goes_ecan_1070_100

The models had been hinting at a cool down towards normal conditions near the end of the month and this storm took advantage of tapping into that colder air.

The blocking pattern up in northern Quebec and Greenland has kept this storm hanging around for 2 days as bands from the north moving south and west.  The Euro model really had a good prediction of this storm since Thursday.  The GFS model was the weaker performing model this time and part of my predictions where based off that model.  Its always best to not bet against the Euro.

I had Ottawa in the 5 -12 range with an update to possibly 20 cm in some areas.  As of earlier today 17 cm had fallen in Ottawa, maybe a little less accumulating on the ground, and maybe another 5 cm in some regions this evening and tonight. To the south around Brockville the 15+cm was about right.  However the upper Ottawa valley around Pembroke got more than I anticipated around 20-30 cm.

So what about the next couple weeks, will this snow last?  In my post yesterday I talked about normal temperatures hanging around for the next 2 week. In addition to those temperatures there are a number of storms making there way to Southern Ontario. However what often happens during the early part of winter is the storms; it’s a very thing line from where it falls as snow compared to rain in other areas.  Often Ottawa and locations further north are in a good spot for the snow but not always.

There are some possibilities from the GFS; Thursday – Friday, a lighter storm Saturday, another storm Tuesday Nov.29 and maybe a stronger storm next Thursday, Friday Dec.1st.  We could also be taking a chance with a GLC (Great Lakes Cutter) storms (which I’ve talked about before) during this time.

This is one of storms next week from the GFS:today-gfs

Compared to a different position from the Euro:today-euro

There is also hints of a colder pattern come mid December that I have talked about before, and maybe a warm up near to after Christmas.  That’s pretty long range so we can investigate that later.  I’ll soon start a long range white Christmas outlook…