Today and as well as this past week temperatures have been mostly above normal, again…yawn…its been this way since June…the result of the super El Nino pattern that wont let go.  We also have a ridge out west (the RRR- Ridiculously Resilient Ridge that I have mentioned before) that’s altering the jet stream and pumping pacific air across the country while Arctic air is trapped on the other side of the globe.  Until that changes, you wont see a big dip into winter, but rather above normal and the odd dip to normal temperatures. I talked a little bit about this in my Winter Forecast posts, and the fact that the longer this hangs on it may wreck the party for snowlovers.

You can see below where the cold is trapped in Siberia and Russia, while the Arctic and the Eastern section of Canada is much above normal:

gefs_t2ma_5d_nh_41

We have been plagued with this type of pattern before, and some winters it was almost a continues pattern.  This year I predicted, as did most forecasters, that this would breakdown and we will eventually see a colder maybe snowier winter. Now its a matter of when that happens (I wont say IF just yet).

Previous predictions and models did show that November would be above normal and eventually fall below normal at the end of the month.  It appears that conditions will continue above normal this week and drop to normal around November 20th through to November 28th. Some might complain that this was weak performance of the models, but I see it as at least picking up on a pattern change.

Here is a preview of this above normal temps and then the drop to colder air.

November 19th warmth in the east:nov-19

November 21st cold in the east:nov-21

Also some models also have some snowstorm potentials closer to November 23rd and maybe some Lake Effect snow (LES) downwind of the lakes.(more on that later…)

Remember normal temperatures are dropping almost daily, we are down to a normal temperature around 5c and towards the end of the month near 3c.  So if we can maintain normal conditions, snow events could be in the forecast.

I suspect December will rise above normal again for the first couple weeks before a pattern change near mid month and towards Christmas.

So if you are loving the warmth, enjoy this week.  If you are a snowlover, patience will be the key…

Advertisements