Sorry for the delay between posts, I got caught up this weekend getting my wood ready for winter.  Have to take advantage of warm weather while I can.

Here is my maps and region breakdown for this winter.  If you have any questions about a particular area I didn’t cover, let me know:

2016-2017-temperatures

2016-2017-precp

 

BC

The onslaught of recent storms may continue for the first half of the month in the BC coast/Vancouver/Vancouver Island areas.  I expect above normal precipitation this year for the Vancouver area along with temperatures close to above normal.  This forecast would be especially true for the first have of winter.  Come January/February things may level out to normal.  This means a much better year for snow in Whistler.

Further inland in the interior of BC things look closer to normal, which means a decent winter with a normal amount of snow in the mountains, meaning a good ski season.

Alberta

It’s been a wild ride this year in Alberta in terms of weather.  This province sees the biggest ups and downs in terms of climate in Canada in my opinion.  Calgary suffered a cool summer that was wet at times, and now a period of very warm fall weather, while the north suffered dry conditions this past winter and spring leading to the Fort Mac fires, to flooding in the summer and then a period of very cold weather in September with an early snowfall.  Unfortunately I expect another wild ride this year; things look to turn very cold especially in the north and east of the province (including Edmonton and Fort Mac) in the latter half of winter, with again another winter of possibly below normal snowfall.  Calgary looks like it might escape with near normal conditions this winter, but I could see extended periods of very cold weather in January and February.

The Prairies (Saskatchewan & Manitoba)

Similar to northern and eastern Alberta, this area also looks to bear the brunt of the cold this winter particularly in January and February.  I also expect below normal snowfall in most locations, however the extreme northern part of both province may experience closer to normal conditions.

Ontario (broken down by region)

This is where my forecast may differ from some of the other views out there.  On the whole, I believe most of the province will see closer to normal conditions, except one or two regions.  Despite the outlook, this year could feel very much like an above normal snowfall year compared to last year.  I expect we will see the bigger impact this winter in January – March, December is a bit of a wild card again this year.

Northwestern Ontario (Thunder Bay, Wawa, Sault Ste.Marie)

This area will have a similar impact as the Prairies; below average temperatures and below average snowfall.  Some forecast don’t have this region getting hit with the cold and below snowfall but I have a feeling bouts of cold air will hit the region from January – March.  The exception would the Sault area as I have feeling the cold northwest air across Lake Superior at times will bring some Lake Effect snow to boost totals.

Northern Ontario (Timmins, North Bay, Sudbury)

This region will likely have a normal winter season with near normal conditions and snowfall.  Watch for a pattern change late November, with a possible warm up early December. I expect a couple 30 cm storms in this area this winter towards January – February.

Central Ontario (Algonquin, Petawawa, Bancroft)

This region will likely have a normal winter season with near normal conditions and snowfall.  Watch for a pattern change late November, with a possible warm up early December. I expect a couple 30 cm storms in this area this winter towards January – February.

Georgian Bay, Muskoka, Lake Effect region (Bracebridge, Collingwood, Alliston, Barrie)

I expect this area will have normal temperatures however above normal snowfall is expected due to Lake Effect.  Because the cold will be nearby in NW Ont and the Prairies I expect outbreaks of cold over the very warm lake will result in a good season.  Watch for Lake Effect to start towards the end of November, with a brief break in early December during a warm up before conditions worsen.

Southwestern Ontario (Windsor, Kitchener-Waterloo, including the Lake Effect region of London)

I expect this area will have normal temperatures and above normal snowfall is expected due to Lake Effect around the London region, but most other areas are normal.  Because the cold will be nearby in NW Ont and the Prairies I expect outbreaks of cold over the very warm lakes will result in a good season.  Watch for Lake Effect to start towards the end of November, with a brief break in early December during a warm up before conditions worsen.  Windsor could be close enough to the cold outbreaks later in January – February and be impacted.

GTA (including Hamilton, Niagara)

This region will also have a normal winter season with near normal conditions and snowfall.  Watch for a brief colder pattern change in late November, before it changes back to warm period in early December before a larger change mid to late December.  Conditions should be much colder this year in January – February compared to last year.

South central / Eastern Ontario (Peterborough, Belleville, Kingston)

This region will also have a normal winter season with near normal conditions and snowfall.  Watch for a brief colder pattern change in late November, before it changes back to warm period in early December before a larger change mid to late December.  Conditions should be much colder this year in January – February compared to last year.  Hopefully this region does get a good winter as there are numerous dry wells in the areas after months of below normal percp.  Hopefully the water table can be improved upon for spring.

Eastern Ontario (including Ottawa, St.Lawerence Brockville – Cornwall)

This area should have normal temperatures, however there is a chance there is an increase in snowfall as the East coast could be impacted with a couple larger storms, especially from January to March.  Hopefully this region does get a good winter as there are numerous dry wells in the areas after months of below normal percp.  Watch for a brief colder pattern change in late November, before it changes back to warm period in early December before a larger change mid to late December.  Conditions should be much colder this year in January – March compared to last year.

 

Southern Quebec including Montreal and Quebec City

This area should also have normal temperatures, however there is a chance there is an increase in snowfall as the East coast could be impacted with a couple larger storms, especially from January to March.  Watch for a brief colder pattern change in late November, before it changes back to warm period in early December before a larger change mid to late December.  Conditions should be much colder this year in January – March compared to last year.

The Maritime’s (PEI, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia)

This area should have normal temperatures, however there is a chance of increased snowfall as the East coast could be impacted with a couple larger storms, especially from January to March.  Dry conditions have also plagued this area so hopefully this region does get a good winter.   Watch for a brief colder pattern change in late November, before it changes back to warm period in early December before a larger change mid to late December. The exception is the extreme east coast of Nova Scotia which may see less actual snow due to ocean moderation.

Newfoundland

This area is a bit of a wild card, as things could go either way.  This area should have normal temperatures, however there is a chance of increased snowfall as the East coast could be impacted with a couple larger storms, especially from January to March. There is also a chance that temperatures remain above normal due to some influence from the north being above normal.  This could result in more rain and mixing storms.

 

As you can see most of Canada is in for a tougher,more traditional winter this year compared to last year.  However check the “what could go wrong” section from my part 1 Winter post to see the imperfections that could impact this forecast.

I’ll do a checkup in April to see how my forecast played out.

Happy winter wishes 😉

 

 

 

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