The atmosphere conditions are rip today for severe thunderstorms this afternoon with the low pressure moving in later.  However some of the cloud cover may limit the instability in the atmosphere leading to weaker and more scattered storms. Watch for severe storm warnings and possibly the odd tornado watch. Here is one model (HRRR) outlook for tonight at 6 pm:

6pm

September – October update

Long range Euro model hints that cooler air makes it way in Ontario/Quebec after September 26th into the middle of October.  This could mean the end of the warm ups and temperatures staying around normal or below and more fall like.

Winter

Things are now certain that La Nina conditions will not develop this winter and we will be in a neutral ENSO state.  I have been talking about this possibility since my June posts.   This could mean that warm conditions will continue this winter.  However anything can happen in a neutral year and you have to start looking at other teleconnections in the atmosphere for hints on the pattern.  Things like troughs and ridge setting up in the pacific west with a warm section of water called the “blob” can have a big impact in our area with less storms. Here is a good article from The Weather Network which explains things well; La Nina sidelined

I’ll keep watching throughout the month and prepare a winter forecast later in October.

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