As expected, the GFS model was incorrect with the strength of the cold front that came in late yesterday.  Temperatures for the next 2 days will be normal, to maybe 1 degree cooler then normal (which 22-23c for most locations in S.Ontario).

The model went from this:gfs_sept1

To this for today (this may still be too cold):todays gfs

The Euro model had temperatures more moderate which was why I wasn’t buying into the GFS.  Its hard to bet against the Euro model which I will illustrate this winter as well; it typically handles storms and patterns the best.

What will be nice is the lack of humidity for the next 2 – 3 days.  Watch for temperatures to climb again this long weekend with humidity back by Sunday-Monday.  The next 15 days look to be warmer than normal and rain possibilities could be there as well with systems from the south and humidity:Sept.1

The Prairies are still suffering with colder than normal averages as they have most of the summer, although the East coast might finally get some warmth, (except Newfoundland).

August finished with above normal rain for most locations in Ontario.  Ottawa, Montreal, Belleville, Sault Ste. Marie, Windsor and London all finished with above normal.  London actually got double their normal average!  Ottawa (as did most) had the wettest month since February!  The exception was around the GTA towards the Niagara peninsula.  They finished below normal.  However it certainly wont be enough to improve water levels and end the drought.  We will need an above normal snowfall winter for that to happen.

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