Well the models weren’t that accurate with presence of normal temperatures this past week, only Monday was normal to slightly below with heat and humidity building back up to a pretty oppressive day on Thursday.  This happened because the placement of the upper level atmosphere ridges and troughs is allowing systems to move from the south bring in heat and humidity.

Moving forward next week expect temperature to be up and down from normal (maybe below normal) to above normal changing every 2 days because of the upper level lows.  Some models like the GFS hint at below normal temperatures around September 1st to 5th:gfs_sept1

This would translate to a crisp 19 – 20c high.  However the Euro model which is usually better at the long range says that warmth will mostly dominant, with only slightly cooler weather for a day or two.

Although things should remain dry, because of the progressive nature of systems and humidity moving in, expect that moist system could still make their way here.  This Sunday would be our first chance at some rain, and then again mid week, but I think it will be scattered both times.

I would expect the next 15 days of September will continue to be warm most days.  Watch for some tropical development in September, somebody could be in for a strong Hurricane this year.Sept look

Winter update
Two of the long range models (JAMSTEC & IMME) changed their tune this month and now predict warmer temperatures and drier patterns for December – March.  They are likely picking up on the fact that La Nina wont develop all that much and conditions will likely be neutral.  But if you are a snowlover, I wouldn’t get disappointed yet.  The statistics for neutral ESO years fair better with normal to slightly above snowfalls, with only like 1 out of 5 that end up with lower average totals, even less of a chance after a strong El Nino year.
I’ll dig deeper into the stats on average snowfalls with a neutral ESO state later in September.  Remember its early, and long range models can be a shot in the dark at this point.  Get out and enjoy the rest of our summer 🙂
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