Well Monday’s storm didnt work for out for Ontario except a line from Brockville to Cornwall and then a good line of storms through Montreal into the southern and eastern townships. The ingredients where there but it just didn’t come together, which is common in the summer, making summer storms so hard to predict, for the high resolution models and even the professional weather agencies get it wrong. Here is my weather friend Seaways comments which are quite true:
When the global models can’t depict convection properly, they throw hissy fits and splatter light QPF (- aka rain) all over the place.
The 4K NAM and HRDPS are the only decent models in that respect at this juncture. Any model with a resolution equal to or over 5 km does not depict non-linear convection very well. Even the high-res models get the positions of discrete cells wrong all the time.
The heat has arrived as predicted from the models and my last posts. Here is tomorrows temps which once again should push towards the warmest day of the year with humidity:
There is also a chance of some scattered storms tomorrow and maybe tonight as a weak system quickly travels though. However once again this will be very scattered and isolated if anything even develops at all. During the summer the jet stream becomes zonal (east to west) so systems move through quick and dont have much chance to develop into a large storm area. During the fall, winter and spring the jet stream becomes amplified or splits and travels far north and then down south around ridges and troughs allowing the jet stream to slow down and develop larger storms with cold and warmth mixing.
The heat wave will continue this weekend and cool down a little early next week, but not by much. Temps should stay normal to slightly above, so there appears to plenty of warmth left into early August.